July station rainfall ends at 5.40", ahead of NOAA normal of 4.27" by 1.13", and breaking a 10-month below normal streak (since Aug. 2025) at this station. Severe deficits remain in year to date rainfall with 18.85" (72% of normal, -7.37") and Water Year (Oct. 1 to Jun 30) at 23.29" (65% of normal, -12.27").

The daily (7/31/26) mean flow for the USGS gage on the Roanoke River at Roanoke is at 100 cfs (normal for 7/31 is 169 cfs), near the low end of Normal (25-75 percentile) category. Carvins Cove local water supply reservoir (as of 7/31) continues to fall however, now -16.3 feet below full pond, a -1.3 ft. drop in the past two weeks (now at 62.5% of capacity,-2.6% decrease in past 2 weeks). July rainfall over the small reservoir catchment has been near the low end (2.5-3") of the entire upper Roanoke River valley where many site had 5 to 8 inches for July.

The US Drought Monitor (USDM) map issued this 7/30/26 and valid as of 7/28/26 showed a 1-category improvement in the Drought status from two weeks ago with continues to show Moderate Drought (D1) across the upper Roanoke Valley but the Severe (D2) just to the east. The State of Virginia Dept. of Environmental Quality (DEQ) has maintained a Drought Emergency for the Roanoke Drought Evaluation Region as of 7/31/26. Three of the four categories (precipitation, groundwater, reservoirs) remained in the 'Emergency' category, while streamflow improved to 'Warning' level.

The NWS Weather Prediction Center (WPC) forecast for the next 7 days (thru 8/8) is fairly optimistic for the region with areal amounts up to 1.25". The NWS Climate Prediction Center (CPC) 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks (issued 7/30, valid through 8/13) offers slightly enhanced probabilities for above normal rainfall and but above normal temperatures. The latest ENSO update from CPC updated (7/27/26) shows an El Niño present (ENSO 3.4 region at +1.4C, +0.1C rise in in past 2 weeks). The 3-month RONI index for Apr-May-Jun was +0.5C  Forecasts continue to show strengthening, with still an 81% chance of 'Very Strong' (+2.0C anomaly) by Oct-Dec time frame.  The impact on regional precipitation patterns remains unclear although some lessening of tropical activity in the Atlantic basin is probable. The Atlantic basin remain quiescent and Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) for the basin is now well below long-term normals for the date, although the season is still early.

The beneficial July rains have kick-started lawn growth (I am out to mow right after this!) and plants are all grateful. Will maintain 'Moderately Dry' conditions locally and hope for a continuation