July station rainfall at mid-month is 2.21" almost exactly NOAA normal. Severe deficits remain however in year to date rainfall, at 15.66" (65% of normal, -8.49") and Water Year (Oct. 1 to Jun 30) at 20.10" (60% of normal, -13.39").

The daily (7/15/26) mean flow for the USGS gage on the Roanoke River at Roanoke is at 143 cfs (normal for 7/15 is 236 cfs), now in the Normal category (25-75 percentile) after a decent rise in the past week in response to the near normal basin rainfall the past two weeks. Carvins Cove local water supply reservoir (as of 7/16) continues to fall however, now -15.0 feet below full pond, a -1.1 ft. drop in the past two weeks (now at 65.1% of capacity,-2.2% decrease in past 2 weeks).

The US Drought Monitor (USDM) map issued this morning and valid as of 7/14/26 continues to show Severe Drought (D2) across the entire upper Roanoke Valley with D3 (Extreme) just southeast and northeast. The State of VA Dept. of Environmental Quality (DEQ) declared a Drought Emergency for the Roanoke Drought Evaluation Region as of 7/7. All four categories (precipitation, groundwater, streamflow, reservoirs) had  reached 'Emergency' category. Local officials have made requests for voluntary water restrictions. nothing mandatory. 

The NWS Weather Prediction Center (WPC) forecast for the next 7 days (thru 7/23) is not optimistic for our area, with a distinct 'rain shadow' across SW VA and up through the Shenandoah Valley, while areas west, east and north receive normal to above normal amounts. The NWS Climate Prediction Center (CPC) 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks (issued 7/15, valid through 7/29) offers slightly enhanced probabilities for above normal rainfall and near normal temperatures. The latest ENSO update from CPC (as of 7/13/26) shows an El Niño present (ENSO 3.4 region at +1.3C, +0.1C in in past 2 weeks). The 3-month RONI index for Apr-May-Jun climbed to +0.5C from 0.0C in Mar-Apr-May, an impressive surge. Forecasts continue to show strengthening, with now an 81% chance of 'Very Strong' (+2.0C anomaly) by Oct-Dec time frame.  The impact on regional precipitation patterns remains unclear although some lessening of tropical activity in the Atlantic basin is probable. The Atlantic basin remain quiescent at this time, although a 20% probability for TS development is shown this morning along the SE US coast.

The recent normal rainfall so far in July has has been highly beneficial to local vegetation of all types but this could easily be short-lived given mid-summer heat. Will (reluctantly) upgrade to Moderately Dry conditions locally but anticipate a return to the worst category at my next two-week update.