June rainfall continued our streak of below normal months (now at consecutive 10 months, back to Sept. 2025) with only 1.30" or 28% of normal, a -3.37" deficit from NOAA normal of 4.67" (climatologically our wettest month). 2026 year to date rainfall is at 13.45" (61% of normal, -8.50") and Water Year to date (Oct 1-Jun 30) is at 17.89" or 57% or normal, a deficit of -13.40".

The daily (6/30/26) mean flow for the USGS gage on the Roanoke River at Roanoke is at 87 cfs (normal for 6/30 is 241 cfs), in the Below Normal (10-24 percentile) category but  showing a small rise in past week due to heavier rainfall in the upper basin. Carvins Cove local water supply reservoir (as of 6/30) continues to fall steadily now (6/30) at -13.9 feet below full pond, a -1.1 ft. drop in the past two weeks (now at 67.3% of capacity,-2.3% decrease in past 2 weeks).

The US Drought Monitor (USDM) map valid as of 6/23/26 continues to show Severe Drought (D2) across the entire upper Roanoke Valley. The State of Virginia Dept. of Environmental Quality (DEQ) continues a Drought Warning for nearly most of the state. DEQ indicators for the Roanoke Drought Evaluation Region as of 6/23 for precipitation and groundwater and streamflow are in the 'Emergency' category, while only reservoirs remain in less dire 'Warning' category. Still no local water restrictions have been imposed although vague statements about conservation have been issued.

A significant heat wave is forecast across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast U.S. through at least July 4th with temperatures reaching the mid-upper 90s and near 100F in the urban heat island of Roanoke. The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) QPF forecast for the next 7-day period (6/30-7/7) shows chances for some modest rainfall (up to 1.00")although it is likely to be convective in nature with erratic coverage and intensity. 

The NWS Climate Prediction Center (CPC) 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks (as of 6/29, valid through 7/13) offers slightly enhanced probabilities for above normal temperatures and rainfall. The latest ENSO update from CPC updated (6/29/26) says El Niño present (ENSO 3.4 region at +1.2C). Forecasts continue for a strengthening with a 63% chance of a 'Very Strong' (+2.0C anomaly)  El Niño event by autumn. The impact on regional precipitation patterns remains unclear although some lessening of tropical activity in the Atlantic basin is probable. A tropical system may be one of the only ways to emerge from the persistent drought.

Local vegetation of all types is clearly under severe stress from the extended dry conditions, with yard plantings surviving only through repeated watering. Even larger trees are showing impacts with leaf curling on mature Dogwoods and even some yellowing leaves on Weeping Cherry and Black Walnut in yard. Grass has browned and is nearly dormant with hardier weeds maintaining some growth.'Severely Dry' conditions remain the only fair description for this area with no improvement in sight.