The first half of June showed significant worsening of all drought indicators. Rainfall at this station to mid-month is at only 0.20" or 9% of normal, a -2.13" deficit from NOAA normal (2.33") to date. 2026 year to date rainfall is now at 12.35" (63% of normal (-7.26") and Water Year to Date (Oct. 1 to Jun 15) is at 58% or normal with a deficit of -12.16".

The daily (6/15/26) mean flow for the USGS gage on the Roanoke River at Roanoke is at 62 cfs, in the Extremely Below Normal (0-5 percentile) category and at a record low flow for the date. Several river basins around southwest/south central VA are among the driest in the entire CONUS. Carvins Cove local water supply reservoir (as of 6/15) was at -12.8 feet below full pond a -1.1 ft. drop in the past two weeks (now at 69.6% of capacity,-2.4% decrease in past 2 weeks).

The US Drought Monitor (USDM) map valid as of 6/9/26 shows Severe Drought (D2) across the entire upper Roanoke Valley. The State of Virginia Dept. of Environmental Quality (DEQ) continues a Drought Warning for nearly all most of the state. DEQ indicators for the Roanoke Drought Evaluation Region as of 6/9 for precipitation and groundwater and streamflow are in the 'Emergency' category, while only reservoirs remain in less dire 'Warning' category. Despite the rather dire numbers no voluntary or mandatory water restrictions have been imposed.

The NWS Climate Prediction Center (CPC) 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks (as of 6/15/26) offers slightly enhanced probabilities for below normal temperatures and above normal rainfall, especially in 6-10 day outlook.  The latest ENSO update from CPC updated today (6/15/26) says that El Niño is now present in the tropical Pacific with a 3-month Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) of -0.1 for the Mar-Apr-May 3-month period (an increase from -0.5 in past two weeks). All forecasts are for strengthening to a strong El Niño and CPC has issued an 'El Niño Watch'. Of course, the impact on regional precipitation patterns remains unclear.

The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) rainfall forecast for the next 7-day period (6/16-6/23) shows an almost remarkable precipitation minima centered over SW VA with large positive precipitation anomalies across the OH and TN valleys and at least normal rainfall to the south and east. 'Severely Dry' conditions are entirely appropriate for this area and with every indication that it will worsen considerably.