April 2026 ends with station rainfall of 1.31" versus NOAA normal of 3.45" (38% of normal). The water year (Oct. 1-Apr. 30) deficit has increased to 8.76" (61% of normal). April marks eight consecutive months with below normal precipitation at this site (Sep25-Apr26). In addition, April ends in the top 5 of warmest Aprils on record at every 'first-order' climate site on the region and that followed a near record warm March. 

The daily (4/29/26) mean flow for the USGS gage on the Roanoke River at Roanoke is at 165 cfs, now into the  Below Normal (10-25 percentile) category but with a slight rise the past few days with our modest rainfall. The long-term mean daily flow at this gage for April 30 is 443 cfs. The cumulative flow (as of 4/30/26) since the start of the water year remains well below the 25th percentile of total flow for period. Carvins Cove local water supply reservoir (as of 4/30) was at -9.9 feet below full pond a -0.9 ft. drop in the past two weeks (76.0% of capacity,-2.1% decrease). The US Drought Monitor (USDM) map valid as of 4/28/26 showed nearly the entire state of Virginia in Severe Drought (D2). The last time a similar situation existed in April was in 2002, toward the end of multi-year historic drought in the region. The State of Virginia Dept. of Environmental Quality issued a Drought Warning for most of the state on 4/17/26 with the exception of the far west and far southeast which remain in Drought Watch. 

The NWS Climate Prediction Center (CPC) 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks (as of 4/29/26) shows below normal temperatures and above normal rainfall at slightly higher probabilities of occurrence but only a weak signal on rain. The latest from CPC (4/27/26) says the La Niña has ended and ENSO Neutral conditions are now present in the tropical Pacific with a 3-month Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) of -0.7 for the Jan-Feb-Mar 3-month period. Consensus forecasts continue to indicate a transition to an El Niño by mid-summer and CPC has issued an 'El Niño Watch', the impact on regional precipitation patterns remains unclear. Once again, I considered a decrease in Condition to Severely Dry but with nearly the entire warm season to go, there needs to be some way to depict a worsening situation.