The first half of April (1st-15th) has been extremely dry with 0.39" versus NOAA normal of 1.73", only 23% of normal at this location The water year (Oct. 1-Apr. 15) deficit has increased to 7.96" with a total of 12.68" or only 61% of normal. In addition, the extraordinary warmth has continued-the first 15 days of April were the 4th warmest on record at KROA climate site (since 1912), after a near record warm March.

The daily (4/15/26) mean flow for the USGS gage on the Roanoke River at Roanoke is at 136 cfs, now into the Extremely Below Normal (0-5 percentile) category. The cumulative flow (as of 3/15) since the start of the water year remains below the 25th percentile of total flow for period. Carvins Cove local water supply reservoir (as of 4/15) was at -9.0 feet below full pond a -0.1 ft. drop in the past two weeks (78.1% of capacity,-0.8%). The US Drought Monitor (USDM) map valid as of 4/7/26 showed a worsening situation over the past two weeks with much of upper Roanoke Valley including the City of Roanoke in Severe Drought (D2). The last time the US Drought Monitor showed D2 (actually D3) over a large swath of Virginia in mid-April was 2002, toward the end of multi-year historic drought in the region.

The NWS Climate Prediction Center (CPC) 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks (as of 4/14/26) continues to show above normal temperatures and below to normal rainfall. Per the latest from the CPC (4/13/26), the La Niña has ended and ENSO Neutral conditions are now present in the tropical Pacific with a 3-month Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) of -0.7 for the Jan-Feb-Mar 3-month period. Consensus forecasts continue to indicate a transition to an El Niño by mid-summer although the impact on precipitation patterns remains unclear. 

I strongly considered a decrease in Condition to Severely Dry but with the growing season only just beginning there is plenty of time for worse conditions to develop.