March precipitation ends with 2.37" versus NOAA normal of 3.58", a deficit of -1.21", 66% of normal. The water year (Oct. 1-Mar. 31) deficit has now increased to 6.62" with a total of 12.29" or only 65% of normal. This also marks the 7th consecutive month (Sept-Mar) with below normal precipitation at this station. The month was also much warmer than normal, currently running in 5th or 6th warmest March on record at KROA climate site, running close to +6F above long-term mean for the month. Spring growth is well underway with many trees starting to leaf out, our two flowering dogwoods blossoming in past day or so.

The daily (3/30/26) mean flow for the USGS gage on the Roanoke River at Roanoke was 128 cfs, now in the 'Extremely Below' normal category (0-5 percentile) per USGS statistics. The cumulative flow (as of 3/30) since the start of the water year remains slightly below the 25th percentile of total flow for period. Carvins Cove local water supply reservoir (as of 3/31) was at -8.9 feet below full pond an increase of +1.1 ft. in the past two weeks (78.3% of capacity, +2.6%), which is a bit of a surprise.

The US Drought Monitor (USDM) map valid as of 3/24/26 showed a slight increase over the past two weeks in the areal coverage of Severe Drought (D2), now covering the City of Roanoke and Salem. Moderate Drought (D1) conditions persist to the west.

The NWS Climate Prediction Center (CPC) 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks (as of 3/30/26) and valid through 4/13, show continued likelihood of above normal temperatures and below normal rainfall. Per the latest from the CPC (3/30/26), La Niña remains present in the tropical Pacific with a 3-month Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) of -0.9 for the DJF 3-month period. Consensus forecasts continue to indicate a transition to ENSO-neutral in month or so and then possibly to El Niño by mid-summer although the impact on precipitation patterns is unknown. 

Will maintain a local condition of Moderately Dry as impacts remain limited despite some very poor indicators.