The first half of March (1-16) has been somewhat drier than normal with 1.51" versus NOAA normal of 1.85". The water year (Oct. 1-Mar. 16) deficit has increased to 5.75" with a total of 11.53" or only 67% of the normal. A bigger story was the extraordinary warmth--the first 15 days of March were the warmest on record at KROA climate site (since 1912) and top 3 at all five regional climate stations. At KROA temps ran +10.9F for the period at 56.8F, 0.5F above the previous 'record' back in 1921. Spring is well underway with many trees and shrubs flowering. A strong cold front will cross the area today with forecast temps. dropping into the low 20s, will not be easy on vegetation.

The daily (3/15/26) mean flow for the USGS gage on the Roanoke River at Roanoke at 258 cfs, in the Below Normal category. The cumulative flow (as of 3/15) since the start of the water year remains just below the 25th percentile of total flow for period. Carvins Cove local water supply reservoir (as of 3/15) was at -10.0 feet below full pond a -0.3 ft. drop in the past two weeks (75.7% of capacity, +6.0%). The US Drought Monitor (USDM) map valid as of 3/10/26 showed very little change in the past two weeks with Moderate Drought (D1) across the upper Roanoke Valley and Severe Drought (D2) over much of central VA. The NWS Climate Prediction Center (CPC) 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks (as of 3/15/26) show an extraordinary upper level ridge building across the western CONUS with extreme warmth likely across the southwest and central states. In the East, a very dry period is forecast with closer to normal temperatures. 

Per the latest from the CPC (3/9/26), La Niña remains present in the tropical Pacific with a 3-month Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) of -0.9 for the DJF 3-month period. Consensus forecasts continue to indicate a transition to ENSO-neutral in the next few months and then possibly to El Niño by mid-summer although the impact on precipitation patterns remains unclear. 

Will show a one-category decline in conditions for this update to Moderately Dry as spring is well underway and the longer term precipitation deficits and warmth maintain pressure on water supplies.