February precipitation ends with 2.50" or 90% of the NOAA normal of 2.79" with the bulk of that occurring in the past two weeks. The water year (Oct. 1-Feb. 28) deficit persists however, with precipitation to date at 9.92" or -5.41" only 65% of the normal of amount of 15.33". The shortfall since the start of the water year goes back to the very dry Oct-Nov, with only 2.34", less then 40% of normal. 

The daily (2/28/26) mean flow for the USGS gage on the Roanoke River at Roanoke 7-day is at 203 cfs this morning, in the Below Normal category and is falling steadily after what passed for our spring snowmelt 'flood' this year. The cumulative flow (as of 2/28) since the start of the water year is now just below the 25th percentile of all flows for the date. On a positive note, Carvins Cove local water supply reservoir (as of 2/28) has risen to -9.7 feet below full pond a +2.7 ft. rise in the past two weeks (76.4% of capacity, +6.0%). The US Drought Monitor (USDM) map valid as of 2/24/26  showed a slight reduction in the areal coverage of Severe Drought (D2) over the past 2 weeks but Moderate Drought conditions (D1) persist across much of western VA including the Roanoke Valley. Per the NWS Climate Prediction Center (2/23/26) La Niña remains present in the tropical Pacific with a 3-month Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) of -1.0 for the NDJ 3-month period. Consensus forecasts continue to indicate a transition to ENSO-neutral in the next few months, although the impact on precipitation patterns remains unclear. CPC 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks (as of 2/27) are showing a wet (and very mild) signal over much of the Ohio and Tennessee valleys as a strong upper level ridge builds in the East. How much rainfall spills into and across the Appalachians is less clear. Will show a one-category improvement for this update to Mildly Dry as we begin a very rapid transition to spring and rainfall becomes more critical. A few bulbs have popped up in the past two weeks but expect a big increase with the forecast warmth.