Monthly precipitation at mid-month (2/14) a paltry 0.13" v. the NOAA mean of 1.40" or 9% of normal. It has been both cold and dry to this point in February with measurable snow cover for almost 3 weeks, a bit unusual this far south. Runoff from the now melted snow/sleet event (1.42") of Jan. 25-26 has provided a slight boost to area streams and hopefully groundwater. The water year (Oct. 1-Feb. 14) precipitation to date stands at 7.55" for a deficit of -6.39" or only 54% of the normal of amount of 13.94". 

As mentioned, runoff to streams and rivers has increased just recently due to snowmelt. The USGS gage on the Roanoke River at Roanoke 7-day average flow (as of 2/13) rose to 162 cfs or the 16th percentile of all flows for the date (40% of median) and now classified in the Below Normal category (10-24th percentile). This 'pulse' has already passed (our version of a spring snowmelt flood) and flows have already decreased to below median daily flows. A note: USGS Waterwatch site which contains these useful longer-term flow averages, will be 'retired' as of 2/24/26 in the interests of 'modernization'. Other statistics of use may be available.

Carvins Cove local water supply reservoir (as of 2/14) dropped to -12.4 feet below full pond (70.4% of capacity) -0.8 ft. drop in the past two weeks, a very slight reduction in the rate of fall. 

The US Drought Monitor (USDM) map valid as of 2/10/26 is unchanged over the past 2 weeks with still Moderate Drought conditions (D1) across most of western VA and Severe Drought (D2) just east of the Roanoke area in most of central and northern VA. 

Per NWS CPC (2/9/26) La Niña remains present in the tropical Pacific with a 3-month Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) of -1.0 for the NDJ 3-month period. Consensus forecasts suggest a transition to ENSO-neutral in the next few months, although the impact on precipitation patterns remains unclear.

Moderately Dry seems remains appropriate for this update, despite a forecast of moderate rainfall (0.75-1.00") tomorrow (2/15-16). Given the recent history of 'under-performing' (or over-forecast) precipitation events can only hope this does not follow suit.