Monthly precipitation ends at 2.98", slightly below January NOAA mean of 3.20" or 93% of normal. An all rain event (1.47") Jan. 10-11 and a snow/sleet event (1.42") Jan. 25-26 provided nearly all the precip. for the month but that precip. is locked up in snow and ice. Temperatures the second half of the month fell way below normal after a very mild first half and January will end up close to -3F below 30-year mean. The water year (Oct. 1-Jan. 31) precipitation continues in a substantial deficit with a total of 7.42" (-5.12") or 59% of normal precipitation for that period.

Hydrologic indicators declined substantially in the past two weeks as snow and cold have limited runoff to near zero. The USGS gage on the Roanoke River at Roanoke 7-day flow (as of 1/30) has fallen to 71 cfs or the 3rd percentile of all flows for the date (18% of median) and now classified as Severe Hydrologic Drought (<5th percentile). Carvins Cove local water supply reservoir (as of 1/30) dropped to -11.6 feet below full pond (72.2% of capacity) -0.9 ft. drop in the past two weeks. The US Drought Monitor (USDM) map valid as of 1/27/26 is unchanged over the past 2 weeks with Moderate Drought conditions (D1) across most of western VA and Severe Drought (D2) just east of the Roanoke area in most of central and northern VA. 

Per NWS CPC (1/26/26) La Niña remains present in the tropical Pacific but not very robust, with a 3-month Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) of -0.5 for the OND 3-month period.

Moderately Dry seems entirely appropriate with the declining hydrologic indicators. Hopefully melting snow next week or two will bring some improvement but we need more precipitation.